# Blackjack Bust Chance: The Odds of Busting on 12 to 20, and the Dealer’s

> Blackjack bust odds worked out exactly: 31% on 12, 62% on 16, 92% on 20. Plus the dealer's bust chance for every up card and what it means for hit or stand.

- Source: https://yesthisgame.com/blog/blackjack-bust-chance/
- Published: 2026-11-02, updated: 2026-11-02
- Author: Yes This Game (the team that makes the games on the site)

## Key takeaways

- One more card busts a hard 12 30.8% of the time, a 16 61.5% and a 20 92.3%. Each extra point adds 1 in 13.
- With 11 or less, or with a soft hand, one card can never bust you.
- The dealer busts most with a 6 showing (42.3%) and least with an ace (16.7% after the blackjack check).
- Hit 12 to 16 against a dealer 7 or higher, stand against 2 to 6 (but hit 12 against a 2 or 3).
- A two-card blackjack comes about once in 21 hands (4.75% with six decks).

**If you hit a hard 12 in blackjack, the next card busts you 31% of the time. At 13 it is 38%, at 14 it is 46%, at 15 it is 54% and at 16 it is 62%. With 11 or less, or with a soft hand that counts an ace as 11, one card can never bust you.** The dealer busts most often when the face-up card is a 6 (42.3%) and least often with an ace (16.7% once the dealer has checked for blackjack). We worked out every number below exactly, and you can try them without risk in a [free blackjack game with practice chips](https://yesthisgame.com/21-blackjack/).

## Your chance of busting on the next card

A card busts you when it takes your total past 21. Tens, jacks, queens and kings all count 10, so four of the thirteen ranks are worth 10, and that is why the numbers climb so quickly. An ace can always count as 1, so it never busts anyone.

*Chance that one more card busts a hard total (shoe of six or more decks)*

| Your hard total | Cards that bust you | Bust chance | Safe cards |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 or less | none | 0% | 13 of 13 |
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 30.8% | 9 of 13 |
| 13 | 9 and up | 38.5% | 8 of 13 |
| 14 | 8 and up | 46.2% | 7 of 13 |
| 15 | 7 and up | 53.8% | 6 of 13 |
| 16 | 6 and up | 61.5% | 5 of 13 |
| 17 | 5 and up | 69.2% | 4 of 13 |
| 18 | 4 and up | 76.9% | 3 of 13 |
| 19 | 3 and up | 84.6% | 2 of 13 |
| 20 | 2 and up | 92.3% | 1 of 13 (an ace) |

The chance goes up by the same step every time: 1 in 13, or 7.7 percentage points, for each point you add to your total. With a single deck the exact figure moves a little depending on the cards already on the table, but rarely by more than two or three points.

A **soft** hand is one where an ace counts 11, such as A-6 (soft 17). If the next card is big, the ace simply drops to 1, so a soft hand cannot bust on one card. That is why basic strategy hits soft 17 even though a hard 17 should almost always stand.

![Bar chart: chance of busting on the next card in blackjack, 30.8% on 12 rising to 92.3% on 20, and dealer bust chance by up card, highest with a 6 at 42.3%](https://yesthisgame.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/blackjack-bust-chance-chart.png)

## The dealer's chance of busting, by up card

The dealer has no choice: draw until the hand reaches 17 or more, then stop. So the dealer's chance of busting depends only on the face-up card and on one house rule, whether the dealer stands or hits on a soft 17.

*Dealer bust chance by face-up card (shoe of six or more decks)*

| Dealer shows | Stands on soft 17 | Hits soft 17 | Before the blackjack check |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 | 35.4% | 35.7% | 35.4% |
| 3 | 37.4% | 37.7% | 37.4% |
| 4 | 39.4% | 39.7% | 39.4% |
| 5 | 41.6% | 41.8% | 41.6% |
| 6 | 42.3% | 43.9% | 42.3% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| 9 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 10, J, Q, K | 23.0% | 23.0% | 21.2% |
| Ace | 16.7% | 20.1% | 11.5% |

In most casinos in the United States the dealer peeks at the hole card when showing an ace or a ten, and the hand ends at once if it is a blackjack. The first two columns are for the hands that go on after that check. The last column counts every hand, blackjacks included, which is how it works where the dealer takes the second card only after the players are done.

Why does a 6 bust more than a 2? With a 6 the dealer most often ends up on a total between 12 and 16 and has to draw again, and one more card busts that hand about half the time. A dealer 7 or higher often reaches 17 to 21 with the next card and stops. Overall, before any up card is known, the dealer busts in 28.2% of hands when standing on soft 17.

## What the numbers mean for hit or stand

Put the two tables together and you get the core of basic strategy for hard totals, the moves that lose the least over many hands:

- **11 or less: hit.** No card can bust you. (Doubling down on 10 or 11 is another story, but hitting is never a mistake.)
- **12 against a dealer 4, 5 or 6: stand.** You bust 31% of the time if you hit, and those dealer cards bust 39 to 42% of the time on their own.
- **12 against a dealer 2 or 3: hit.** These are close calls; the dealer busts a little less, so the small risk of taking a card pays.
- **13 to 16 against a dealer 2 to 6: stand.** Let the dealer take the risk.
- **13 to 16 against a dealer 7, 8, 9, 10 or ace: hit.** Yes, even 16. The dealer busts only 17 to 26% of the time here, so standing on 16 loses more often than hitting. Where surrender is offered, 16 against a 10 is the classic hand to give up.
- **17 or more: stand.** At hard 17 you would bust 69% of the time.

These are the basic strategy moves for a shoe game where the dealer stands on soft 17. They lower the house edge; they do not beat it. In blackjack the player always acts first, so when both hands bust, the player has already lost.

## Your chance of a two-card 21

A blackjack is an ace plus any card worth 10. We counted every two-card hand:

*Chance of being dealt a blackjack*

| Cards in play | Chance | About one hand in |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Single deck (52 cards) | 4.83% | 21 |
| Six decks (312 cards) | 4.75% | 21 |
| Endless shoe | 4.73% | 21 |

One hand in 21 is a nice coincidence for a game called twenty-one.

## How we worked it out

For a shoe of six or more decks, each card that comes out barely changes the mix of what is left, so we treated every draw as the same: each of the ranks ace to 9 has a 1 in 13 chance, and a ten-value card has a 4 in 13 chance. Your bust chance is then simply the share of ranks that push the total over 21. For the dealer we followed every possible run of cards, with exact fractions, until each one ended on 17 to 21 or on a bust, and added up the busts. The blackjack chances use the real number of aces and ten-value cards in one and in six decks. The results agree with the standard published tables to within a tenth of a point.

## Practice without risk

- [21 Blackjack](https://yesthisgame.com/21-blackjack/) is a free table with practice chips. Nothing you win or lose has any value, so it is a good place to try the hit and stand moves above.
- [Lucky 21 Tower](https://yesthisgame.com/lucky-21-tower/), a card battle game we made, turns your total into an attack and shows your bust chance under the table. It counts the cards really left in your own deck, so it is exact for that deck, and it gets harder to ignore once a monster is hitting back.
- [Battle Jack 21](https://yesthisgame.com/battlejack/) is another card battle where exactly 21 wins the fight at once.

More card and table games are in [Board and Card Games](https://yesthisgame.com/category/board-game/).

## Frequently asked questions

### What are the odds of busting on 16 in blackjack?

61.5%. Any 6, 7, 8, 9 or ten-value card takes a hard 16 past 21; that is 8 of the 13 ranks.

### What are the odds of busting on 12?

30.8%. Only the ten-value cards (10, jack, queen, king), 4 of the 13 ranks, bust a hard 12.

### Can you bust with 11?

No. The biggest card is worth 10, so 11 plus any card is at most 21. A soft hand cannot bust on one card either, because the ace drops from 11 to 1.

### Which dealer up card busts the most?

A 6. With a 6 showing, the dealer busts 42.3% of the time when standing on soft 17 and 43.9% when hitting soft 17.

### Should you hit 16 against a dealer 10?

Basic strategy says hit, or surrender if the table allows it. You bust 61.5% of the time, but a dealer 10 busts only 23% of the time, so standing on 16 loses even more often.

### How often do you get a blackjack?

About once in 21 hands: 4.83% with one deck, 4.75% with six decks.

## Games in this guide

- [21 BlackJack](https://yesthisgame.com/21-blackjack.md): Play blackjack free online with $1,000 in practice chips: beat the dealer to 21 without real money. Rules, a simple strategy and tips. No download.
- [Lucky 21 Tower](https://yesthisgame.com/lucky-21-tower.md): Play Lucky 21 Tower free: draw cards, get close to the magic number and strike. Climb 30 floors in three worlds, build your deck, unlock six heroes.
- [BATTLE JACK 21](https://yesthisgame.com/battlejack.md): Play Battle Jack 21 free online: pick a champion, draw cards towards 21 and strike. Exactly 21 wins the battle, over 21 does no damage. No download.